A new study by World Perspectives, Inc, estimates that beef and pork exports added 39 cents per bushel to the price of corn and 85 cents per bushel to the price of soybeans in 2018.
Red meat exports are expected to generate $19.1 billion in market value to corn and $3.1 billion in market value to distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) from 2019 – 2028.
USMEF and the National Corn Growers Association initially commissioned WPI to quantify the impact of U.S. beef and pork exports on corn use and value in 2016, using 2015 data. Record-setting growth in red meat exports since 2016 – along with an uncertain global trade climate that has developed since the original study – led USMEF to request updates.
Using final 2018 data and new 2019 to 2028 USDA baseline projections, WPI updated its analysis of red meat exports’ impact on corn in 2018 and expanded the analysis on the value of pork exports to soybeans. You can read the final report here.
Highlights from the updated WPI study include:
- Since 2015, meat exports represent the fastest growing category of corn and soybean meal use.
- In 2018, exports accounted for 14.6 percent of total U.S. beef production and 25.7 percent of U.S. total pork production, and accounted for 459.7 million bushels of corn utilization – with a market value of $1.62 billion at the year-average market price – and 2 million tons of soybean meal disappearance, which is the equivalent of 84.2 million bushels of soybeans with a market value of $783 million.
- It is estimated that in 2018 beef and pork exports added $0.39 to the average 2018 corn price of $3.53/bushel. Similarly, it is estimated that pork exports added $0.85 per bushel to the average 2018 soybean price of $9.30/bushel.
- Since 2015, one in every four bushels of added feed demand for corn was due to beef and pork exports and one in every 10 tons of added feed demand for soybean meal use was due to pork exports.
- Over the next 10 years, meat exports are forecast to generate a projected $30.8 billion in cumulative annual market value to corn and soybeans based on USDA’s long-term forecast for crop prices.
Additional highlights specific to Illinois corn:
- U.S. red meat exports generated a market value of $244 million to Illinois corn and $32.6 million to Illinois DDGS in 2018 (corn/DDGS consumed by meat exports * annual average corn/DDG price)
- U.S. red meat exports are expected to generate a market value of $2.879 billion to Illinois corn and $347 million to Illinois DDGS from 2019 - 2028
- Without red meat exports, Illinois corn farmers would have lost $859 million in corn revenue in 2018 (state corn production * $0.39/bushel)