A proposed merger between
Union Pacific (UP) and
Norfolk Southern (NS) would create the first true transcontinental Class I railroad in the United States, connecting the West Coast, the Midwest, and the East Coast under a single rail network. For Illinois corn farmers, the outcome could have significant implications for how—and at what cost—grain, ethanol, and other agricultural products move to market.
The merger is still working its way through a lengthy federal review process. Given its size and scope, the transaction would represent one of the most significant developments in the U.S. rail industry in decades.
Timeline:
- July 2025 – Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS) announced plans to merge and notified the
Surface Transportation Board (STB)
- December 2025 – April 2026 – UP-NS submitted its initial merger application, which STB rejected as incomplete; the companies announced plans to refile and submitted an amended application April 30th
- May 28, 2026
–
STB accepts revised application with conditions for supplemental information
- July 2026 – UP-NS filed initial conditions to STB on Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis (TRRA), Kansas City Terminal Railway (KCT), and TTX Company (TTX) with full supplemental information due July 27th
- August 18, 2026
– STB adopted procedural schedule for consideration of the application
- September 4, 2026
– Notices of Intent to Participate are due
- November 18, 2026
– Public comments are due
- May 28, 2027
– Final briefs are due, after which the record will close
- Within 90 days after the record closes
– STB is expected to issue its final decision on the merger
The merger process will take time, and the ultimate effects on rail service, competition, and rates remain uncertain. Even if approved, implementation and any resulting changes to the rail network would take additional time.
Analysis conducted in partnership with the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) has identified several potential benefits and concerns for U.S. corn farmers and other agricultural shippers.
Potential Benefits
- Greater market access
- Direct rail access from the Eastern Corn Belt to Mexico
- Greater access for Eastern Corn Belt biofuels to West Coast markets
- Increased access for Western Corn Belt corn to Southeastern feed markets
- Efficiency of dealing with one railroad
- Shippers moving products across the country could potentially work with one railroad rather than coordinating between multiple Class I railroads
- Potential for more transloading operations
- A larger, interconnected network could create opportunities for additional transloading operations and expanded access to markets not directly served by rail
Risks and Concerns
- Potential for higher rail rates
- The merger includes approximately $20.1 billion cash component, creating significant financial obligations for the combined company
- Increased traffic alone may not be sufficient to offset those costs, potentially putting upward pressure on rates
- Pressure on small shippers
- The combined railroad may continue prioritizing larger, more efficient trains, potentially making service more difficult for smaller shippers and facilities that cannot accommodate large train volumes
- Potential service disruptions
- Integrating two different operating models could create service challenges during the transition
- Previous Class I railroad mergers have experienced operational disruptions, making implementation a key concern
- Potential for further consolidation
- The UP-NS merger could increase pressure for additional Class I railroad consolidation, including a potential merger between Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway (BNSF) and CSX
- Further consolidation could have significant implications for competition, rates and service
As the UP-NS merger continues through the STB application process, IL Corn will continue monitoring the potential impacts on Illinois corn farmers. A final STB decision is not expected before 2027, providing farmers, shippers and other stakeholders additional opportunities to evaluate the proposal and weigh in as the review moves forward.
