Fertilizer Forecast: What Farmers Need to Know for Spring

The rising cost of fertilizer isn’t just a domestic issue—it’s a global one. Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, explains:

Europe’s Energy Crisis – High natural gas prices have reduced fertilizer production to 75% of normal.

China’s Export Restrictions – Normally a major urea exporter, China has cut exports drastically.

Middle East & Africa Disruptions – Iran is offline, and Egypt’s gas shortages are raising concerns.

U.S. Demand is Rising – With corn acres increasing, the need for nitrogen-based fertilizers is surging.

These factors combine to create a tight supply and rising demand, leading to higher prices just as farmers prepare for spring.

What Can Farmers Do?

With prices increasing and availability uncertain, farmers need to act now. Linville offers this key advice:

Talk to Your Retailer – Whoever supplies your fertilizer, start that conversation ASAP.

Plan for Delays – Imported urea takes at least 60 days to reach farmers once shipped.

Lock in Your Needs Early – The first 30-45 days of the year are critical for securing phosphate, potash, and anhydrous.

The Potash Outlook: Prices on the Rise

Farmers who saw low potash prices in 2022 may not be so lucky this season.

Prices were at historic lows but are now increasing.

Manufacturers are responding to strong demand after a busy fall application season.

Tariff fears are adding uncertainty to the market.

Prices have already jumped $25 per ton and may continue climbing.

While potash values may stabilize in late spring or summer, that won’t help for this planting season—another reason to act now.

Final Thoughts: Be Proactive, Not Reactive

The bottom line? Farmers can’t afford to wait. Secure fertilizer supplies now, stay in touch with retailers, and plan ahead to avoid being caught off guard by price swings and delays.