Internal Combustion Engine Ban Could Devastate Agriculture

A new study released by the Agricultural Retailers Association (ARA) finds that U.S. light-duty and freight vehicle consumption of ethanol and biodiesel could decline up to 90 percent to 1.1 billion gallons and up to 61 percent to 0.8 billion gallons, respectively if a discussed ban on internal combustion engines becomes a reality.

Corn and soybean consumption could decrease by up to 2.0 billion bushels and up to 470 million bushels, respectively if a ban is put into place. Additionally, corn prices are projected to fall up to 50 percent to $1.74 per bushel, while soybean prices fall up to 44 percent to $4.92 per bushel in response to a ban.

In this scenario, U.S. net farm income would decrease by up to $27 billion.

The study uses proposals to ban internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 and 2050 to serve as the economic models for the study, along with a base case provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook.

The study makes clear that an internal combustion engine vehicle ban could devastate the agriculture community.

Proposals that seek to rush this ban to 2035 have the most severe impacts, but any ban results in dramatic decreases in ethanol, biodiesel, corn and soybean prices, and demand for fertilizer and other agricultural products. These are burdens carried disproportionately by the agriculture community.

Using the study’s estimated acreage reduction of 5 to 7 million acres of corn as an example, the impact on fertilizer alone is significant. In that scenario, nitrogen demand impact is approximately 800,000 to 1 million tons of urea and UAN each, assuming that direct application of ammonia volume remains constant. This represents about 15 percent of the urea market and 7% of the UAN market in the U.S., which will have a significant impact on fertilizer prices.

Further, the study shows that the economic losses throughout the biofuels value chain range from $105 billion to $185 billion, and cumulative federal, state, and local tax revenues losses range from $39 billion to $69 billion through 2050.

This study used POLYSYS and IMPLAN to derive the agricultural and economic impacts of this study.

< Older Post

Newer Post >

Hear from Lou Lamoreux: Livestock Farmer and Former IL Corn Board Director

By Tara Desmond • September 3, 2026

Livestock farmer Lou Lamoreux talks about his farming operation.

captain Cornelius at shake it up cocktail lounge

Cheers to Corn This Labor Day

By Tara Desmond • September 3, 2026

4.29M bushels of U.S. corn fueled beverage alcohol production in July 2026 alone — up 54% from July 2025. Corn's in your Labor Day toast!

Can Short Stature Corn Deliver? Steve Fourez Puts It to the Test

By Tara Desmond • September 3, 2026

Illinois farmer Steve Fourez tests short stature corn against conventional hybrids, exploring yield potential and late-season management benefits.

USDA Announces Plans to Modernize Agricultural Data Collection

By Lyndi Allen • September 3, 2026

This week, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins announced the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Data Modernization Plan to put Farmers First, reduce unnecessary burdens on producers, and improve the timeliness, accuracy, and usefulness of the data that informs agricultural decisions. USDA data informs crop and livestock estimates, risk-management tools, disaster assistance, and critical business decisions made by farmers, ranchers, agribusinesses, researchers, and policymakers. In February 2026, Secretary Rollins issued a Request for Information seeking feedback on the opportunities, challenges, and emerging areas in USDA data. That feedback helped shape the USDA Data Modernization Plan and its four pillars: Modernize the Data Reporting Experience: USDA will expand use of administrative data, improve mobile access to surveys, explore opportunities to use prefilled information where appropriate, and strengthen coordination across the Department. These changes will reduce duplicative requests and limit the amount of time producers spend reporting information. Enhance Acreage and Yield Estimation: USDA will conduct a pilot to evaluate the use of improved satellite imagery, geospatial tools, crop models, and other emerging technologies combined with essential producer-reported information to enhance acreage and yield estimations. USDA will also assess the use of optional field inputs to enhance and ground truth yield estimates and continue advancing yield research through collaboration with agricultural partners and land-grant universities. Integrate Data and Technology Platforms: USDA will modernize its technology infrastructure, expand secure data-sharing capabilities, and evaluate the responsible use of tools such as artificial intelligence and machine learning. Better integrated systems will improve efficiency, reduce duplication, and allow USDA to produce more timely and useful information. Expand Trust and Transparency with Producers: USDA will protect producer privacy, clearly explain why information is requested and how it is used, and create additional opportunities for producers to provide feedback. USDA will also improve communication surrounding reports, methodologies, response rates, and data limitations. USDA will begin implementing actions under the plan immediately and will continue engaging farmers, ranchers, and agricultural stakeholders throughout the process. The Department will evaluate new approaches carefully, protect privacy and confidentiality, and publish clear methodologies and supporting information to maintain the integrity of USDA’s agricultural statistics. See USDA’s Full Data Modernization Plan

Cornfield beside a dirt path under a blue sky with wispy clouds

EPA Grants Biofuel Exemptions

By Lyndi Allen • September 2, 2026

EPA has granted 1.76 billion RIN exemptions to small refiners, raising concerns among farmers and biofuel producers about the potential impact on demand for renewable fuel.

Week Ending 8/28/26 Summary

By Lyndi Allen • August 28, 2026

News from IL Corn for week ending 8/28/26