What Does Trump’s Win Mean for Agriculture?

Election 2024 Rundown

Donald Trump stunned political observers on November 5 with an overwhelming victory. The former President reversed results from the 2020 election by winning all seven of the key battleground states, including the so-called “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. While Kamala Harris underperformed with certain voter demographics, Trump expanded his overall support and is on track to win the popular vote by a significant margin.

What does Trump’s victory mean for farmers and the issues they face in the current marketplace?

Initially, we all need to watch who Trump puts into his cabinet to oversee the departments of agriculture, trade and energy. Particularly for agriculture, will Trump select a more traditional secretary that is familiar to the industry or someone who is an outside-the-box choice like a Robert Kennedy Jr.? This decision will greatly impact agriculture policy during his administration. On the trade front, expect similar policies as we saw in Trump’s first administration, when he challenged norms and pursued bi-lateral trade agreements. As for energy, on the campaign trail Trump spoke frequently about maximizing the U.S.’s energy production capabilities, driving down fuel prices for consumers and reversing policies like mandates on electric vehicles. Expect that to be a focus during his first 100 days in office, along with looking to address immigration policy and the southern border.

In Congress, the Republicans took control of the Senate, and we are waiting to see if they retain control of the House of Representatives. In addition to potential focus on energy and immigration policy in the first 100 days, Congress will also be looking to address tax policy in 2025. As for prospects of the Farm Bill, we’ll need to watch who ends up with control of the House. Republicans controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress will change the calculation on Fam Bill negotiations and the likelihood of a clean extension for 1 or 2 years, or a bill with policy changes. Either way, we retain advocates for Illinois agriculture in Congress on both sides of the aisle. All incumbents in our delegation won their election, including House Agriculture Committee members Rep. Eric Sorensen and Nikki Budzinski who won competitive races. Also worth noting, the sponsor of the Next Generation Fuels Act, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) has declared victory in her election; however, the race is not officially called yet. The vote totals are Miller-Meeks has 203,899 votes, and challenger Christina Bohannon has 203,486 votes.

In the Illinois State Legislature there were very few competitive races this election cycle, and all of those were concentrated in the Illinois House. Despite being outspent significantly by House Democrats and operating under the disadvantage of the Democratically drawn legislative map, House Republicans appear to have avoided defeats in several hotly contested Illinois House races that hours after the races remained too close to call. Initial results show that former President Trump’s stronger-than-expected showing in Illinois may have positively impacted several down-ballot races.