Farmer Production Decision-Making

When it comes to how farmers make production decisions, the reality may surprise you. A recent Farm Doc webinar featuring University of Illinois agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey and Laura Gentry from IL Corn and Precision Conservation Management (PCM) pulled back the curtain on data collected through the PCM program and what they found challenges some common assumptions held by conservation advocates, agronomists, and extension professionals alike. Rather than experimenting field by field, most farmers are operating from a single, carefully considered plan and sticking to it.

Here are the main points of the webinar:

• The PCM program, launched in 2015 by IL Corn, works with farmers across Illinois, Nebraska, Missouri, and Kentucky to help them adopt conservation practices in a financially sound way.
• Most farmers operate with just one production plan per crop (corn or soybeans), covering tillage, fertilizer, and pesticide decisions and those plans change very slowly over time.
• Tillage practices have gradually shifted toward conservation systems (no-till, strip-till, one-pass light), with strip-till seeing the biggest growth. Over 70% of farmers use the same tillage system across all their fields of the same crop.
• Nitrogen application methods and rates are even stickier than tillage - 75% of farmers apply within 10 pounds of the same rate year over year, and most do not adjust to MRTN (Maximum Return to Nitrogen) levels even when economics suggest they should.
• Cover crop adoption has grown within PCM, especially on soybean fields (~33%), but remains far above the statewide average of 4-6%, likely driven by partner incentive payments from companies like PepsiCo.
• Rising fertilizer prices (anhydrous ammonia now over $1,000/ton) and the Iran conflict are putting new pressure on input costs heading into 2026 & 2027 planning.

Understanding how farmers actually make decisions (not how we assume they do) is essential to designing effective conservation programs and outreach. The PCM data makes one thing clear: farmers are not reckless or resistant to change, but they are deliberate, consistent, and risk-aware. Every field pass and every management choice represents real money gained or lost.

For those working to scale conservation adoption, the takeaway is practical: rather than asking a farmer to try something on one field, it may be far more effective to help them see how a new practice fits cleanly into the system they're already running across all their acres.